Why can't we go back?

We’re not returning to the days of forging and living off the land. If we were to do that in earnest, we would have to reduce the human population by at least 80% and more just to gain the needed acreage to sustain. Who should go? AI is our best means of finding sustainability. 

I have heard this argument a lot recently “Rather than developing new technology and certainly not AI, we should be considering a complete return to the ways of our ancestors as far back as necessary to cultivate a more sustainable way of life on earth. The answers are in our past when it comes to environmental sustainability, not in 1’s and 0’s.”

My response: To this argument is as follows. 

Allow me to wax on a little as to why technology is so important for food sustainability versus the proposal of going back to the ways of the past.  

Let's talk about some egalitarian and idealistic opinions that we should return to that land as a species. To return to individualized agriculture or even foraging hunter-gathering. What would that take in terms of acreage on earth? Keep in mind that I will use very conservative favorable numbers based on the research that varies over the years. 

Let's start with hunter gathers because, you know, that's where it began. Since hunter-gatherers did not rely on agriculture, they used mobility as a survival strategy. Indeed, the hunter-gatherer lifestyle required access to about 98 acres per person to find the food they needed to survive. Unfortunately, earth only has 36 Billion acres of land, and we are not accounting for land suitable for such endeavors. There are 7.7 billion people on the planet, but let's knock that down to a nice round number like 7 billion. 98 acres multiplied by 7 billion is 691 billion acres needed to go back to the good old days of spears and arrows. This presents a problem for those who call for a return to simpler times.  

Next, let's try personal agriculture. Here a single human requires using the 5 to 6 acres of land to live comfortably, producing their food. This is by far a much more favorable prospect. Accept that's still 42 billion acres for just 7 billion people on a planet with only 36 billion acres. Again is not a good sign for those who want to go back to simpler times without economies and industry to support food production. 

Now, these numbers can be swayed obviously by other research, but given that, I haven't even factored in land habitat requirements to do either of these things. That reduces the useable acreage by a large margin, and one must again factor in climate change, reducing the number of usable lands. So, to put it bluntly, I'm saying there is no way we can ever go back to anything remotely like these scenarios without a mass extinction event.

We're not going back unless you kill off  60 - 90% of all humans today. SO! If we're not willing to do that on purpose over, say, the next 50 - 200 years, we will need to rely on the authentic product of humanity at large, technology. 

This brings us to the use case for AI to find timely solutions to ever-growing complex issues such as food insecurity.  The great POC of the potential of AI in my mind is the protein folding project known as ALPHAFold, developed and opened to the world by DeepMind. ​​The resulting "database includes predicted structures for a wide range of species, including plants, bacteria, animals, and other organisms, opening up new avenues of research across the life sciences that will" impact "global challenges, including sustainability, food insecurity, and neglected diseases."

Believe me, I am an idealist and optimist most of the time. But those characteristics can't be aligned with genocide, in my opinion, and are distractions from the crisis at hand. We gotta move forward NOW.

j

Ya gotta see some value in "a more perfect union"

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra
It's about progress, not perfection. That is not something I believe but rather know to be true.

I say this after reading idealist perspectives on the past and, for the most part, toward the so-called "founding fathers." To entirely discount the achievements of these men is not only naive, it is disingenuous. It is fact that most, if not all, enslaved people. Horrifically owning fellow human beings. Yes, it is true that they completely discounted the female voice, and yes, it is true that they essentially established a system in which only the property owner had a significant role to play. In the light of today, everyone one of those truths is unethical, inhuman, and destructive. What's worse is even to this day, people codify their actions with the reality of the past.

As one can intellectually see these truths, it is also rational that one should be able to recognize that they also put forward a means to self-govern not seen in the western European establishment. They paved the way to self-correct precisely for the reason I mentioned above. The past can always be called into question in the light of the present day. Because, like nature, society evolves. Even in the writings of Jefferson and Adams, it is at least evident that they knew that as it pertained to the Magna Carta. They recognized it was a breakthrough at the time but out of date in the early 1800s, yet still had intrinsic value to adopt in part. The strength to comprise for the sake of progress was the strength of the founding fathers.

For example, to completely discount the value of the constitutional ability to amend defined in 1789 is to say that everyone should be vilified for having the foresight to learn and adjust. One would be wrong if one expects today's values to hold up in the light of, say, 200 years from now. 

Flat out, you and I will be shown to be wrong eventually somewhere. The point here is not to say the founding fathers were men of greatness but rather knew better than some today that progress is attainable, but perfection is not. "A more perfect union" is Not a perfect one.

I'm sure some will read this as a rationalization, and it will be condemned. I welcome this. It's taken me a long time to balance this in my mind, and I recognize it's coming from a straight white male. But the fact is we have failed to continue to utilize the greatest gift bestowed on us, The power of amendment. The rest of the world has passed us by as we spin in polarization over the last 60-75 years.

j

Autonomous indomitability

The rise of the term “smart” or “connected” city has become a talking point that many city leaders use, but only those that have a long-term perspective will gain the strategic advantage of being early adopters, or even better - global pioneers, bringing their region into the forefront. As the rise of China's megacities continue and the cities of the 50 United States struggle to upgrade their legacy, China currently has the advantage. The advantage to define urban society in the new era of change and exponential growth. This isn't as much a race, as it is a defining moment of human civilization. The cities that define and become centers of intellectual capital via the utilization of technology, (specifically machine learning and deep neural networks) as a substrate, will have economic prosperity for the next 100 years. Think New York in the 20th century or London and Paris of the 19th century.  

It’s one thing to talk about smart/connected cities and quite another to actually take on the challenge beyond words and press conferences. You need a strategy and a leading effort or project. A project to kickstart and force the vapor into reality. Something that utilizes the existing diversity and provides equity to the citizens of the region, while creating a strong gravity that pulls the best breed of talent and intellectual capital to the project.

In the summer of 2016, I wrote the following sample press release. At first, it was a way for me to imagine what a favorable outcome might look like, and then it became more of an invitation… a catalyst for others to consider and possibly adopt the idea as a grand challenge for the city I live in. The city of Sacramento, California.

Eventually, I sent this to several people, which I desired to have as part of a collective conversation. I'm not sure if this was the final version -  but it's at least one of the rough drafts.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

June 25, 2016

Sacramento Becomes First City in the U.S. to Create an Open-Source Civic Platform for Driverless Cars

June 25, 2016; Sacramento, CA - Today the City of Sacramento is announcing the Autonomous Grid and inviting all autonomous vehicle manufacturers and the industries that support them, to use Sacramento as its open-source platform.

“Today we are taking steps to make the downtown and midtown grid in Sacramento, as well as Interstate 5 from downtown to the airport, open-source and autonomous-ready,” said Sacramento Mayor. “As Sacramentans, we believe the future is strengthened when communities, who embrace technology, design, ideas, and government come together.”

This groundbreaking initiative is the first of its kind in the nation and will do more than just bring autonomous vehicles, and those who support that industry, to Sacramento. The effort stands poised to transform Sacramento into the easiest city in California to do business in when coupled with the city’s recently approved $10 million Innovation and Growth Fund proposal.

"This is exactly what Sacramento 3.0 is about,” elected official. “Bringing to our city the ability to lead and house new ideas and businesses whose innovations lead the world".

As a city with a history built on transportation via the Pony Express, the transcontinental railroad and the region’s waterways, an open-source designation for autonomous vehicles pays homage to the city’s legacy of innovation and pioneering spirit.

"We're excited to explore these ideas in concert with the world’s leading sports and entertainment arena on earth. We can imagine so many ways this type of experience can only enhance the experience at Golden One Center" -- (Sacramento professional sports spokesperson/owner)

“As a member of the vibrant innovation community of Sacramento, the idea just seemed obvious knowing the history of Sacramento's legacy of transportation evolution including, the transcontinental railroad. Plus there's no better way for California lawmakers to form an opinion on policy than to experience it first-hand.” -- Jay Sales, Blah Balh blah

Call to Action: For Sacramento to become the transportation leader it once was we need to bring together the top minds and experience in the field of autonomous vehicles. Thus we want to invite these minds to form a consortium to outline the goals, timeline, and build a project plan to support a directive of this magnitude including identification of key stakeholders, leaders, collaborators, supporters, and partners.

This little idea of mine was spawned by a question I had asked a city candidate during the election: “What the hell is your NASA? What's your vision that will drive this city over the edge of possibilities and into a position of leadership, the way going to and landing on the moon did for the United States?”

In all fairness this probably wasn’t a question he was expecting, and I certainly didn't get the answer I was hoping for. I wanted the candidate to express a solid vision. One that would help Sacramento business leaders attract the best minds to come and work in our city.  A reason for every graduate of local and international academic institutions to stay and/or relocate to Sacramento. I wanted them to give a nod to the enormous renaissance we were and are in, and to the value of the design, technology, and policy that could be harnessed in Sacramento via a focus like this. You know... the magic stuff that inspires great minds and eager citizens to go beyond the typical expectations.

And, in reality - the answer I got fell short. Maybe the question I asked fell short? As I drove home in my dead-dinosaur powered truck I thought “Well, how the hell would you have answered that question, dork?” Maybe I should have simply stated the challenge that I felt needed to be addressed. And that was simple: Sacramento was not a hotbed for attracting the global top-tier talent that is required to drive vibrant new economies and the culture of the future. To attract technologists, designers, and philosophers alike, we needed to raise the bar. Focus on our strengths, and create opportunities that would almost force a migration and create a gravity of intellectual capital and eventually, monetary capital into our city.

So, what are our strengths? And what challenges faced by future-focused industries could be solved by tapping in to those strengths? Surely, simpler questions. And ones that we could as a city, collectively answer.

As the Capital of California, Sacramento has historically led in breathtaking ways. It was Sacramento, not San Francisco that took a risk on Theodore “Crazy” Judah, the central engineer and visionary behind the First Transcontinental Railroad. Sacramento was also the first to transmit electricity over a long distance - from the folsom powerhouse to the central city. And note, this was ahead of Niagra Falls. Maybe the younger generation living and creating in Sacramento aren’t aware of these early discoveries,  but this type of innovative action is in the DNA of our city.

Are you seeing the connection? We take an identifiable global trend, not likely to plateau anytime soon = the migration into urban centers, and then we design a solution to address the ever increasing variable = speed.

Similar to organisms multiplying at a rampant rate, cities too are networks of networks of predictable and systematic scaling. However, unlike biology, cities demonstrate superlinear scaling of organized complexity. “AHHH... This is my Jam”

So, what are the potential problems that come with such systems? To start: entropy. The lack of order or predictability leading into a gradual decline and disorder. In the scenario of cities, this would look like crappy planning and lack of execution, which ultimately creates slums and a lack of equity within.

However, with self-correcting mechanisms and predictability, entropy could be avoided completely. Utilizing civic IoT (Internet of Things) and data-rich analytics, coupled with smart adoptable systems found in artificial intelligent frameworks, which are really the makeup of what’s known as “Smart Cities” ...Crap we might be onto something.  “Hmm, what’s driving society to examine this and how will it impact social contracts? How will citizens of cities adapt to automation at scale? Who's taking this on beyond the lab?”

By now, you maybe wondering how I got from loving my city, to creating a “dream-like” sample press release? As this mental exercise of ‘follow the dots’ continued, I finally landed on an idea that I felt had a valuable focus, and strategically positioned us to drive an adoption of systems that would avoid entropy and empower civilians and businesses, all at the same time. Insert cliché “aha! moment.”

The idea: Mobility. More specifically - the adoption of autonomous mobility. Everything from self-driving cars, to the redistribution of civic infrastructure and resources to support these new autonomous systems. Think garbage collection or health care distribution based on information, data, and autonomous deployment. Of course, it would start by simply moving people from point A to point B, but it would lead to so much more all while creating by-products that empower the network effect.

“A network effect is the positive effect described in economics and business that an additional user of a good or service has on the value of that product to others. When a network effect is present, the value of a product or service increases according to the number of others using it.”

The idea: Sacramento shouldn't just allow a company to come in and test their autonomous cars like Austin or Phoenix. No. Instead, it should establish itself as demonstration city or living-lab of deployment; used for collaboration with companies and startups. Forming a consortium of sorts and a partnership between citizens, local & state government, large corporations, and small startups, whose common intentions are to oversee and govern the deployment of autonomous mobility. The outcomes of those deployments should then be used to set the global standard for adoption. Allowing autonomous vehicles to be the catalyst for the deployment of the technology, and the launching pad for new business models in Sacramento. You know -  make money while being accountable. This sort of model is loosely based on the W3C or Linux foundation, in which everyone has access to the standards and knowledge generated via the efforts of those groups spawning new business and prosperity.

The result: What is demonstrated and learned in Sacramento can be shared with and utilized by other cities globally to adopt a new driverless economy. And, when a driverless solution comes to town, the question heard across the lands becomes “did you go through the Sacramento protocol?”

All of this thinking and the sample press release led to discussions, followed by many meetings, and eventually the adoption of the name ATOS (Autonomous Transportation Open Standard) lab, which spells out exactly what the idea is: A way to define and establish a collective standard that can be adopted not only by manufacturers, but also cities and jurisdictions around the globe; thereby accelerating the adoption of this technology and giving rise to new industry and viability, all while reducing deaths via humans, who are, let’s face it - drastically crappy at driving. We’re not in the business of creating an open source sharing of data between companies, but rather forming the network they will all need, in order to engage collectively.

It is our hope that through the creation of standards, we’re answering questions such as:

• If sensors are utilized in the city to know variables such as foot traffic, how should that be distributed to connect AV’s so they can use the information to increase the safety probabilities?

• How should emergency systems interact with AV’s?

• If a fire is taking place in a city location how would AV’s help allow emergency vehicles to get there quicker and safer?

• How do the underserved communities become empowered via AV vs. being left behind?

• How do the elderly use AV’s?

• And how does the use of autonomous transportation affect the social contract of social interaction and city's cultural growth and vibrancy?

There are certainly other cities exploring this position (see: Songdo, South Korea.) Cities where major universities and public leaders reside. Cities that have been able to secure funds and conjure excitement and passion for driverless cars and the formation of a smart city. So... what does Sacramento have to offer that isn't found in these other cities?

1. Sacramento is the capital of the 5th largest economy on earth and the policies developed here, often lead to not only national but global adoption. Early adoption of these evidence-based policies, generate capital for a city. However, it is critical to understand the opportunities available in unison with the assumed “dangers.” Allow innovation into the neighborhood, then test, then learn. All of the institutions that need to understand not only the risks but the opportunities are co-located right here in Sacramento. Think DMV, CALTrans, CARB, etc. Shouldn't the policy makers within those institutions, and the Capital itself lead the way via early adoption, ultimately driving evidence-based policy? Rather than speculating on the risk, know the reality and the possible benefits. Allow innovation in your own back yard so you understand it rather than assuming you know more than you do. Learn.

2. The potential for a new city inside an existing city. Sacramento is the home of the railyards. 240 acres that, when redeveloped, will double the size of our downtown. The Sacramento Railyards is quite possibly the largest infill project in the country right now. Directly across the river is The Bridge District - 184 more acres with ¾ of a mile of undeveloped riverfront. Think about this in the context of smart cities: Nowhere else will you find an existing city/region with the potential to develop a new one, within and adjacent. One’s that could incorporate all of the next-century technology and in turn redefine how a city should be done. It’s the best of old-world mixed with new-world opportunities. What would it look like to lay roadways designed for electric and driverless vehicles as the default means of transportation for its citizens? How could this design be utilized in the under-served neighborhoods to enable equity?  

3. An existing central city grid and surrounding jurisdictions with relative simplicity. Sacramento is the perfect stage to launch systems of complexity. It was designed on a grid of one-way streets that connect to traditional suburban infrastructure. Its airport alone acts as a scaled model of larger ones. It's currently not too big and not too small. That goes for the rest of the city as well It's just right for demonstration. Sacramento is like a “Goldilocks” city - one ready and primed to define the next era of urban planning via intelligent networks.

4. 5G network. Sacramento is deploying 5G as I write this. In 2018, Sacramento was selected as the roll-out city for “the world's first commercial 5G.” We’re poised to be a catalyst for future innovation if there is a driver.

5. Proximity to the Silicon Valley. Sacramento is certainly not trying to be the silicon valley, but we’re glad to be it’s partner. Why not facilitate the needs of the valley, all while defining our own future as a smart city? This could be achieved by leading civic efforts related to autonomous systems. In this case ATOS.

6. We have three reputable local universities: UC Davis; University of the Pacific; and Sacramento State - all full of young, brilliant minds, that have yet to partner with the city on a legacy project that could help redefine the region.

7. We are the agriculture capital of the West. Sacramento is surrounded by agricultural economies, and is already leading the way towards automation utilization. This is an obvious next layer of entrepreneurial investment.

By creating standards that address the given challenges related to scaling this technology, and by focussing on our strengths as a city, Sacramento could be one of the few to lead. Imagine the cities that choose to take on such grand challenges 100 years from now. They will be the global standard bearers and be decades ahead of the curve,  while others are still struggling to move past the legacy infrastructure. They will be the first ones who define access to possible new prosperity.

But, the adoption of such audacious ideas lead to the transformation from legacy cities into next-century cities. While it may be obvious, Sacramento isn't the only city who can do this. And Sacramento might never do this -  and that's ok. But, it's the cities that take such bold steps that will attract and drive smart city adoption before all others, thus empowering it's citizens via new found forms of equity and access. And - more important than anything - we want to be a city where those that inhabit, take pride in the creation of the future. A city where the art, music, and food will reflect the ideas of what's next. A community in which it’s citizens expect to define the future, rather than having it  defined for them, elsewhere.

“AI applications are likely to transform transportation toward self-driving vehicles with on-time pickup and delivery of people and packages. This alone will reconfigure the urban landscape, as traffic jams and parking challenges become obsolete”

Stanford University One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100)

ATOS is currently in the process of being established under a possible mobility institute and enjoys support from local leadership but is really the starting point. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this if you live in Sacramento, and if you're reading this and think it could work in your city then steal it and run with it. None of this is hard to imagine. It only takes the will and determination of Crazy Juda to make it a reality

Ugh I'm tired of thought vomiting and my hands hurt. Stop dumb ass.

j